Climate change has likely already affected global food production

Deepak Ray, Paul C. West, Michael Clark, James S. Gerber, Alexander V. Prishchepov, Singdhansu B Chatterjee

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

Crop yields are projected to decrease under future climate conditions, and recent research suggests that yields have already been impacted. However, current impacts on a diversity of crops subnationally and implications for food security remains unclear. Here, we constructed linear regression relationships using weather and reported crop data to assess the potential impact of observed climate change on the yields of the top ten global crops–barley, cassava, maize, oil palm, rapeseed, rice, sorghum, soybean, sugarcane and wheat at ~20,000 political units. We find that the impact of global climate change on yields of different crops from climate trends ranged from -13.4% (oil palm) to 3.5% (soybean). Our results show that impacts are mostly negative in Europe, Southern Africa and Australia but generally positive in Latin America. Impacts in Asia and Northern and Central America are mixed. This has likely led to ~1% average reduction (-3.5 X 1013 kcal/year) in consumable food calories in these ten crops. In nearly half of food insecure countries, estimated caloric availability decreased. Our results suggest that climate change has already affected global food production.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numbere0217148
JournalPloS one
Volume14
Issue number5
DOIs
StatePublished - May 1 2019

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Climate Change
food production
Climate change
Crops
Elaeis guineensis
climate change
Climate
Soybeans
Food
crop yield
crops
soybeans
climate
Southern Africa
Central America
Saccharum
Manihot
Brassica rapa
Sorghum
Corn Oil

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Climate change has likely already affected global food production. / Ray, Deepak; West, Paul C.; Clark, Michael; Gerber, James S.; Prishchepov, Alexander V.; Chatterjee, Singdhansu B.

In: PloS one, Vol. 14, No. 5, e0217148, 01.05.2019.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Ray, Deepak ; West, Paul C. ; Clark, Michael ; Gerber, James S. ; Prishchepov, Alexander V. ; Chatterjee, Singdhansu B. / Climate change has likely already affected global food production. In: PloS one. 2019 ; Vol. 14, No. 5.
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