Can UK passenger vehicles be designed to meet 2020 emissions targets? A novel methodology to forecast fuel consumption with uncertainty analysis

Niall P.D. Martin, Justin D.K. Bishop, Ruchi Choudhary, Adam M. Boies

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

20 Scopus citations


Vehicle manufacturers are required to reduce their European sales-weighted emissions to 95 g CO2/km by 2020, with the aim of reducing on-road fleet fuel consumption. Nevertheless, current fuel consumption models are not suited for the European market and are unable to account for uncertainties when used to forecast passenger vehicle energy-use. Therefore, a new methodology is detailed herein to quantify new car fleet fuel consumption based on vehicle design metrics. The New European Driving Cycle (NEDC) is shown to underestimate on-road fuel consumption in Spark (SI) and Compression Ignition (CI) vehicles by an average of 16% and 13%, respectively. A Bayesian fuel consumption model attributes these discrepancies to differences in rolling, frictional and aerodynamic resistances. Using projected inputs for engine size, vehicle mass, and compression ratio, the likely average 2020 on-road fuel consumption was estimated to be 7.6 L/100 km for SI and 6.4 L/100 km for CI vehicles. These compared to NEDC based estimates of 5.34 L/100 km (SI) and 4.28 L/100 km (CI), both of which exceeded mandatory 2020 fuel equivalent emissions standards by 30.2% and 18.9%, respectively. The results highlight the need for more stringent technological developments for manufacturers to ensure adherence to targets, and the requirements for more accurate measurement techniques that account for discrepancies between standardised and on-road fuel consumption.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)929-939
Number of pages11
JournalApplied Energy
StatePublished - Nov 1 2015

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
NEDC data measurements were supplied by CAP Consulting. The authors are also grateful to the Energy Efficient Cities Initiative and the EPSRC (EP/F034350/1) for funding this work.

Funding Information:
ME&P, IWW, INRETS, CSST, DLR, EPFL, et al. SCENES European transport forecasting model and appended module: technical description. Deliverable D4 of the SCENES project funded by the European Commission. Brussels: n.d.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2015 Elsevier Ltd.


  • Bayesian
  • Energy use
  • Fuel consumption
  • NEDC
  • Uncertainty analysis
  • Vehicle emissions targets


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