Black–White Summer Learning Gaps: Interpreting the Variability of Estimates Across Representations

The estimation of racial test score gap trends plays an important role in monitoring educational equality. Documenting gap trends is complex, however, and estimates can differ depending on the metric, modeling strategy, and psychometric assumptions. The sensitivity of summer learning gap estimates to these factors has been under-examined. Using national data, I find Black–White summer gap trends ranging from a significant relative disadvantage for Black students to a significant relative advantage. Preferred models show no overall gap change the summer after kindergarten, but Black students may make less summer math growth than White students with similar true spring scores. In estimating gap trends, researchers must recognize that different statistical models not only carry unique assumptions but also answer distinct descriptive questions.