Biomarkers of glucose homeostasis as mediators of the relationship of body mass index and waist circumference with COVID-19 outcomes among postmenopausal women: The Women's Health Initiative

Background & aims: Systematic reviews, meta-analyses and Mendelian randomization studies suggest that cardiometabolic diseases may be associated with COVID-19 risk and prognosis, with evidence implicating insulin resistance (IR) as a common biological mechanism. As driving factors for IR, we examined body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) among postmenopausal women in association with COVID-19 outcomes (positivity and hospitalization), and the role of glucose homeostasis as a mediator of this relationship. Methods: Associations of BMI and WC at baseline (1993–1998) with COVID-19 outcomes collected at Survey 1 (June–December, 2020) and/or Survey 2 (September–December, 2021) were evaluated among 42,770 Women's Health Initiative (WHI) participants (baseline age: 59.36 years) of whom 16,526 self-reported having taken ≥1 COVID-19 test, with 1242 reporting ≥1 positive COVID-19 test and 362 reporting ≥1 COVID-19 hospitalization. We applied logistic regression and causal mediation analyses to sub-samples with available fasting biomarkers of glucose homeostasis (glucose, insulin, Homeostatic Model Assessment for Insulin Resistance, Homeostasis Model Assessment for β-cell function, Quantitative Insulin-sensitivity Check Index, Triglyceride-Glucose index (TyG)) at baseline, whereby 57 of 759 reported COVID-19 test positivity and 23 of 1896 reported COVID-19 hospitalization. Results: In fully adjusted models, higher BMI, WC and TyG were associated with COVID-19 test positivity and hospitalization. Glucose concentrations mediated associations of BMI and WC with COVID-19 positivity, whereas TyG mediated BMI and WC's associations with COVID-19 hospitalization. Conclusions: Obesity and central obesity markers collected an average of 24 years prior were associated with COVID-19 outcomes among postmenopausal women. Glucose concentration and TyG partly mediated these associations.