Automatic detection and correction of multi-class classification errors using system whole-part relationships

Real-world dynamic systems such as physical and atmosphere-ocean systems often exhibit a hierarchical system-subsystem structure. However, the paradigm of making this hierarchical/modular structure and the rich properties they encode a "first-class citizen" of machine learning algorithms is largely absent from the literature. Furthermore, traditional data mining approaches focus on designing new classifiers or ensembles of classifiers, while there is a lack of study on detecting and correcting prediction errors of existing forecasting (or classification) algorithms. In this paper, we propose Detector, a hierarchical method for detecting and correcting forecast errors by employing the whole-part relationships between the target system and non-target systems. Experimental results show that Detector can successfully detect and correc-t forecasting errors made by state-of-art classifier ensemble techniques and traditional single classifier methods at an average rate of 22%, corresponding to a 11% average forecasting accuracy increase, in seasonal forecasting of hurricanes and landfalling hurricanes in North Atlantic and North African rainfall.