Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures

Byron A. Steinman, Michael E. Mann, Sonya K. Miller

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

163 Scopus citations

Abstract

The recent slowdown in global warming has brought into question the reliability of climate model projections of future temperature change and has led to a vigorous debate over whether this slowdown is the result of naturally occurring, internal variability or forcing external to Earth's climate system. To address these issues, we applied a semi-empirical approach that combines climate observations and model simulations to estimate Atlantic- and Pacific-based internal multidecadal variability (termed "AMO" and "PMO," respectively). Using this method, the AMO and PMO are found to explain a large proportion of internal variability in Northern Hemisphere mean temperatures. Competition between a modest positive peak in the AMO and a substantially negative-trending PMO are seen to produce a slowdown or "false pause" in warming of the past decade.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)988-991
Number of pages4
JournalScience
Volume347
Issue number6225
DOIs
StatePublished - Feb 27 2015

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