Associations of retrospective and concurrent lipid levels with subclinical atherosclerosis prediction after 20years of follow-up: The Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study

Purpose: Using data from the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study, we sought to determine how well lipids measured at baseline and at 20years predict the presence of subclinical atherosclerosis. Methods: Complete risk factor, coronary artery calcification (CAC), and carotid intima media thickness (CIMT) data were available for 2435 participants. Lipids were categorized into quartiles, CAC at Y20 was dichotomized as present/absent, and CIMT was dichotomized as ≥84 or <84th overall percentile. Multivariable logistic regression was used to model the association between lipids and CAC/CIMT. C statistics were used to assess the discriminative value of each lipid measure in predicting the presence of CAC or CIMT at Y20. Results: Lipid levels measured in young adulthood as well as middle age were both associated with subclinical disease in middle age. The discriminatory value of lipids was virtually identical at baseline, when participants were 18-30years of age, and 20years later. Neither baseline nor Y20 lipid data were strong predictors of Y20 subclinical disease despite statistically significant associations. Conclusions: These results are consistent with a growing body of evidence that early-life exposure to nonoptimal lipids matters and lifestyle modifications administered earlier in the lifespan could slow the progress of the atherosclerotic plaques.