Association between environmental factors and dengue incidence in Lao People’s Democratic Republic: a nationwide time-series study

Masumi Sugeno, Erin C. Kawazu, Hyun Kim, Virasack Banouvong, Nazife Pehlivan, Daniel Gilfillan, Ho Kim, Yoonhee Kim

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

5 Scopus citations

Abstract

Background: Dengue fever is a vector-borne disease of global public health concern, with an increasing number of cases and a widening area of endemicity in recent years. Meteorological factors influence dengue transmission. This study aimed to estimate the association between meteorological factors (i.e., temperature and rainfall) and dengue incidence and the effect of altitude on this association in the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR). Methods: We used weekly dengue incidence and meteorological data, including temperature and rainfall, from 18 jurisdictions in Lao PDR from 2015 to 2019. A two-stage distributed lag nonlinear model with a quasi-Poisson distribution was used to account for the nonlinear and delayed associations between dengue incidence and meteorological variables, adjusting for long-term time trends and autocorrelation. Results: A total of 55,561 cases were reported in Lao PDR from 2015 to 2019. The cumulative relative risk for the 90th percentile of weekly mean temperature (29 °C) over 22 weeks was estimated at 4.21 (95% confidence interval: 2.00–8.84), relative to the 25th percentile (24 °C). The cumulative relative risk for the weekly total rainfall over 12 weeks peaked at 82 mm (relative risk = 1.76, 95% confidence interval: 0.91–3.40) relative to no rain. However, the risk decreased significantly when heavy rain exceeded 200 mm. We found no evidence that altitude modified these associations. Conclusions: We found a lagged nonlinear relationship between meteorological factors and dengue incidence in Lao PDR. These findings can be used to develop climate-based early warning systems and provide insights for improving vector control in the country.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number2348
JournalBMC public health
Volume23
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 2023

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023, The Author(s).

Keywords

  • Dengue
  • Rainfall
  • Risk assessment
  • Temperature
  • Vector-borne diseases

PubMed: MeSH publication types

  • Journal Article
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

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