Abstract
Beef product recall data from 2005 through 2012 associated with Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) O157 contamination were used to develop quantitative models to estimate the number of illnesses prevented by recalls. The number of illnesses prevented was based on the number of illnesses that occurred relative to the number of pounds consumed, then extrapolated to the number of pounds of recalled product recovered. A simulation using a Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) probability distribution with illness-related recalls estimated 204 (95% credible interval, 117-333) prevented STEC O157 illnesses from 2005 through 2012. Recalls not associated with illnesses had more recalled product recovered and prevented an estimated 83 additional STEC O157 illnesses. Accounting for underdiagnosis resulted in an estimated total of 7500 STEC O157 illnesses prevented over 8 years. This study demonstrates that recalls, although reactive in nature, are an important tool for averting further exposure and illnesses.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 800-805 |
| Number of pages | 6 |
| Journal | Foodborne pathogens and disease |
| Volume | 12 |
| Issue number | 9 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Sep 1 2015 |
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Assessment of Shiga Toxin-Producing Escherichia coli O157 Illnesses Prevented by Recalls of Beef Products. / Seys, Scott A.; Sampedro, Fernando; Hedberg, Craig W.
In: Foodborne pathogens and disease, Vol. 12, No. 9, 01.09.2015, p. 800-805.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Assessment of Shiga Toxin-Producing Escherichia coli O157 Illnesses Prevented by Recalls of Beef Products
AU - Seys, Scott A.
AU - Sampedro, Fernando
AU - Hedberg, Craig W.
PY - 2015/9/1
Y1 - 2015/9/1
N2 - Beef product recall data from 2005 through 2012 associated with Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) O157 contamination were used to develop quantitative models to estimate the number of illnesses prevented by recalls. The number of illnesses prevented was based on the number of illnesses that occurred relative to the number of pounds consumed, then extrapolated to the number of pounds of recalled product recovered. A simulation using a Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) probability distribution with illness-related recalls estimated 204 (95% credible interval, 117-333) prevented STEC O157 illnesses from 2005 through 2012. Recalls not associated with illnesses had more recalled product recovered and prevented an estimated 83 additional STEC O157 illnesses. Accounting for underdiagnosis resulted in an estimated total of 7500 STEC O157 illnesses prevented over 8 years. This study demonstrates that recalls, although reactive in nature, are an important tool for averting further exposure and illnesses.
AB - Beef product recall data from 2005 through 2012 associated with Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) O157 contamination were used to develop quantitative models to estimate the number of illnesses prevented by recalls. The number of illnesses prevented was based on the number of illnesses that occurred relative to the number of pounds consumed, then extrapolated to the number of pounds of recalled product recovered. A simulation using a Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) probability distribution with illness-related recalls estimated 204 (95% credible interval, 117-333) prevented STEC O157 illnesses from 2005 through 2012. Recalls not associated with illnesses had more recalled product recovered and prevented an estimated 83 additional STEC O157 illnesses. Accounting for underdiagnosis resulted in an estimated total of 7500 STEC O157 illnesses prevented over 8 years. This study demonstrates that recalls, although reactive in nature, are an important tool for averting further exposure and illnesses.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84940664320&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84940664320&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1089/fpd.2015.1968
DO - 10.1089/fpd.2015.1968
M3 - Article
C2 - 26218894
AN - SCOPUS:84940664320
VL - 12
SP - 800
EP - 805
JO - Foodborne Pathogens and Disease
JF - Foodborne Pathogens and Disease
SN - 1535-3141
IS - 9
ER -