Application of scale-recursive estimation to ensemble forecasts: A comparison of coarse and fine resolution simulations of a deep convective storm

Fanyou Kong, Kelvin K. Droegemeier, V. Venugopal, Efi Foufoula-Georgiou

Research output: Contribution to journalConference articlepeer-review

1 Scopus citations

Abstract

The use of Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) in producing multiple resolution ensemble forecasts for the Fort Worth, Texas, tornadic thunderstorm case was discussed. A five-member ensemble was created using the scaled lagged average forecasting (SLAF) technique at a grid spacing ranging from coarse to fine. SLAF ensembles were found to show very promising storm scale forecasting skill. It was proposed that the scale-recursive estimation (SRE) method should be applied to merge model precipitation output by blending the coarse resolution ensembles with statistical information from the fine resolution forecast.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)2815-2821
Number of pages7
JournalBulletin of the American Meteorological Society
StatePublished - Jun 1 2004
EventCombined Preprints: 84th American Meteorological Society (AMS) Annual Meeting - Seattle, WA., United States
Duration: Jan 11 2004Jan 15 2004

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