The use of Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) in producing multiple resolution ensemble forecasts for the Fort Worth, Texas, tornadic thunderstorm case was discussed. A five-member ensemble was created using the scaled lagged average forecasting (SLAF) technique at a grid spacing ranging from coarse to fine. SLAF ensembles were found to show very promising storm scale forecasting skill. It was proposed that the scale-recursive estimation (SRE) method should be applied to merge model precipitation output by blending the coarse resolution ensembles with statistical information from the fine resolution forecast.
|Original language||English (US)|
|Number of pages||7|
|Journal||Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society|
|State||Published - Jun 1 2004|
|Event||Combined Preprints: 84th American Meteorological Society (AMS) Annual Meeting - Seattle, WA., United States|
Duration: Jan 11 2004 → Jan 15 2004