Analysis of apoB Concentrations across Early Adulthood and Predictors for Rates of Change Using CARDIA Study Data

John T. Wilkins, Hongyan Ning, Allan Sniderman, Neil Stone, James Otvos, David R. Jacobs, Ravi Shah, Venkatesh L. Murthy, Jamal Rana, Norrina Allen, Donald M. Lloyd-Jones

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


The cumulative exposure to apolipoprotein B (apoB)-containing lipoproteins in the blood during early adult life is a central determinant of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk. To date, the patterns and rates of change in apoB through early adult life have not been described. Here, we used NMR to measure apoB concentrations in up to 3055 Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study participants who attended the years 2 (Y2), 7 (Y7), 15 (Y15), 20 (Y20), and 30 (Y30) exams. We examined individual-level spaghetti plots of apoB change, and we calculated average annualized rate of apoB concentration change during follow-up. We used multivariable linear regression models to assess the associations between CARDIA participant characteristics and annualized rates of apoB change. Male sex, higher measures of adiposity, lower HDL-C, lower Healthy Eating Index, and higher blood pressures were observed more commonly in individuals with higher apoB level at Y2 and Y20. Inter- and intraindividual variation in apoB concentration over time was substantial—while the mean (SD) rate of change was 0.52 (1.0) mg/dl/year, the range of annualized rates of change was ¡6.26 to þ9.21 mg/dl/year. At baseline, lower first apoB measurement, female sex, White race, lower BMI, and current tobacco use were associated with apoB increase. We conclude that the significant variance in apoB level over time and the modest association between baseline measures and rates of apoB change suggest that the ability to predict an individual’s future apoB serum concentrations, and thus their cumulative apoB exposure, after a onetime assessment in young adulthood is low.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number100299
JournalJournal of lipid research
Issue number12
StatePublished - Dec 2022

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This research was supported by the National Institutes of Health, under grant R01 HL146844 (to J. T. W.). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health.

Funding Information:
The authors thank the other investigators, staff, and participants of the CARDIA study for their valuable contributions. A full list of participating CARDIA investigators and institutions can be found at https://www.cardia.dopm. The CARDIA study is conducted and supported by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute in collaboration with the University of Alabama at Birmingham (grant nos.: HHSN268201800005I and HHSN268201800007I), Northwestern University (grant no.: HHSN268201800003I), University of Minnesota (grant no.: HHSN268201800006I), and Kaiser Foundation Research Institute (grant no.: HHSN268201800004I). This article has been reviewed by CARDIA for scientific content.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology Inc.. All rights reserved.


  • apolipoprotein B
  • change
  • epidemiology
  • young adults

PubMed: MeSH publication types

  • Journal Article
  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural


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