Analysis of alternative labor-force population migration forecasting models

This study evaluates the ability of a model using economic and demographic variables to predict migration patterns. The regression model tested is based on an analysis of migration hypotheses, operationalized on a past time period, and evaluated with the method used by the Bureau of the Census. Dollar value estimates using recent Federal revenue sharing allocations are made with the alternative forecasting methods for one State in each of the Bureau of the Census regions. The results show that the model that is developed provides a firmer basis for projection confidence than does one which relies solely on trend extrapolation.