An experiential model of drought risk and future irrigation behaviors among central Minnesota farmers

Anticipatory water planning must address not only future climatic conditions but also the experiential dimensions of risk that drive human and societal adaptation. Compared to the western USA, agricultural producers in the upper Corn Belt have had less exposure to extreme drought and less irrigated agriculture. If climate change threatens to increase drought frequency or severity in the Corn Belt, a transition from rain-fed agriculture to irrigated agriculture in this region would require systemic changes and significant financial investments. Knowing what drives drought risk perceptions and irrigation behaviors will inform anticipatory planning and water supply management. We surveyed central Minnesota farmers about their drought risk perceptions in two groundwater management areas where climate models project heightened variability in water supply during the growing season. We examined the influence of farmers’ drought exposure beliefs, farm sensitivity appraisals, and drought risk perceptions on future irrigation behaviors. We presented farmers with experiential scenarios of future drought derived from downscaled climate projections and asked about their likelihood of adopting or expanding irrigation systems under those conditions. Findings indicate that many farmers surveyed are concerned about drought, in part because they believe that future droughts are likely in the area and their farms are sensitive to drought. More than one quarter of farmers reported being likely to adopt or expand irrigation under several drought-experience scenarios.