Affective variability prospectively predicts higher affective well-being, but only when people feel low.

Previous studies have predominantly viewed affective variability as detrimental to well-being, suggesting an unstable emotional state. However, research on early warning signs of affective disorders suggests that affective variability may also be adaptive, particularly when individuals’ affective well-being is low. Here, we sought to test that greater affective variability would predict increased affective well-being over time (Hypothesis 1), or that better affective well-being would lead to lower affective variability over time (Hypothesis 2), and that the first relationship would be stronger for individuals with low prior levels of affective well-being (Hypothesis 3) and weaker for individuals high in neuroticism (Hypothesis 4). We tested this set of hypotheses by reanalyzing 14 ambulatory assessment data sets (N = 2,374 participants with 25,478 observations at the day level). Our integrative data analysis revealed that greater affective variability at time t₁ was significantly associated with better subsequent affective well-being at time t₂ at the day and year level. In addition, this association was significantly moderated by initial levels of affective well-being and by neuroticism, although the evidence for the latter was limited. These findings highlight the importance of distinguishing between within-person processes and between-person differences: Experiencing greater affective variability relative to others may indicate a lower level of overall affective well-being. At the same time, experiencing greater affective variability when feeling lower than usual may signal the potential for improvement in one’s affective experience.