Adding value to ecological risk assessment with population modeling

Valery E. Forbes, Peter Calow, Volker Grimm, Takehiko I. Hayashi, Tjalling Jager, Agnete Katholm, Annemette Palmqvist, Rob Pastorok, Dan Salvito, Richard Sibly, Julann Spromberg, John Stark, Richard A. Stillman

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

80 Scopus citations


Current measures used to estimate the risks of toxic chemicals are not relevant to the goals of the environmental protection process, and thus ecological risk assessment (ERA) is not used as extensively as it should be as a basis for cost-effective management of environmental resources. Appropriate population models can provide a powerful basis for expressing ecological risks that better inform the environmental management process and thus that are more likely to be used by managers. Here we provide at least five reasons why population modeling should play an important role in bridging the gap between what we measure and what we want to protect. We then describe six actions needed for its implementation into management-relevant ERA.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)287-299
Number of pages13
JournalHuman and Ecological Risk Assessment
Issue number2
StatePublished - Mar 2011

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
Funding was provided by the Research Institute for Fragrance Materials (RIFM), ECETOC, and Roskilde University. The authors also thank the participants of the


  • Ecological risk assessment
  • Environmental management
  • Extinction risk
  • Extrapolation
  • Population modeling
  • Socioeconomic analysis


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