Abstract
Two studies examined the accuracy of personal risk estimates, as determined by comparing mean estimates made by college students with population statistics for college-educated individuals. Study 1 suggested that optimistic biases (the tendency for people to think they are less at risk than the average person) arise more because people overestimating the average person's risk than because they underestimate their own risk. In Study 2, subjects rated their risk after being presented with risk statistics that were 150%, 100%, or 50% of the true values. Subjects' estimates decreased with decreases in the comparison statistics, as if subjects attempted to preserve their "below-average" status, but they changed less than did the statistics and were actually pessimistic in comparison to the 50% values. Implications for interventions designed to influence risk perceptions are discussed.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 1213-1236 |
| Number of pages | 24 |
| Journal | Journal of Applied Social Psychology |
| Volume | 26 |
| Issue number | 14 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Jul 16 1996 |
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Absolute and Relative Biases in Estimations of Personal Risk. / Rothman, Alexander J.; Klein, William M.; Weinstein, Neil D.
In: Journal of Applied Social Psychology, Vol. 26, No. 14, 16.07.1996, p. 1213-1236.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Absolute and Relative Biases in Estimations of Personal Risk
AU - Rothman, Alexander J.
AU - Klein, William M.
AU - Weinstein, Neil D.
PY - 1996/7/16
Y1 - 1996/7/16
N2 - Two studies examined the accuracy of personal risk estimates, as determined by comparing mean estimates made by college students with population statistics for college-educated individuals. Study 1 suggested that optimistic biases (the tendency for people to think they are less at risk than the average person) arise more because people overestimating the average person's risk than because they underestimate their own risk. In Study 2, subjects rated their risk after being presented with risk statistics that were 150%, 100%, or 50% of the true values. Subjects' estimates decreased with decreases in the comparison statistics, as if subjects attempted to preserve their "below-average" status, but they changed less than did the statistics and were actually pessimistic in comparison to the 50% values. Implications for interventions designed to influence risk perceptions are discussed.
AB - Two studies examined the accuracy of personal risk estimates, as determined by comparing mean estimates made by college students with population statistics for college-educated individuals. Study 1 suggested that optimistic biases (the tendency for people to think they are less at risk than the average person) arise more because people overestimating the average person's risk than because they underestimate their own risk. In Study 2, subjects rated their risk after being presented with risk statistics that were 150%, 100%, or 50% of the true values. Subjects' estimates decreased with decreases in the comparison statistics, as if subjects attempted to preserve their "below-average" status, but they changed less than did the statistics and were actually pessimistic in comparison to the 50% values. Implications for interventions designed to influence risk perceptions are discussed.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=0030487458&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=0030487458&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1111/j.1559-1816.1996.tb01778.x
DO - 10.1111/j.1559-1816.1996.tb01778.x
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:0030487458
VL - 26
SP - 1213
EP - 1236
JO - Journal of Applied Social Psychology
JF - Journal of Applied Social Psychology
SN - 0021-9029
IS - 14
ER -