For several decades the existence of interdecadal and multidecadal internal climate oscillations has been asserted by numerous studies based on analyses of historical observations, paleoclimatic data and climate model simulations. Here we use a combination of observational data and state-of-the-art forced and control climate model simulations to demonstrate the absence of consistent evidence for decadal or longer-term internal oscillatory signals that are distinguishable from climatic noise. Only variability in the interannual range associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation is found to be distinguishable from the noise background. A distinct (40–50 year timescale) spectral peak that appears in global surface temperature observations appears to reflect the response of the climate system to both anthropogenic and natural forcing rather than any intrinsic internal oscillation. These findings have implications both for the validity of previous studies attributing certain long-term climate trends to internal low-frequency climate cycles and for the prospect of decadal climate predictability.
Bibliographical noteFunding Information:
We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modelling groups for producing and making available their model output. M.M., B.S. and S.M. were all supported by a grant from the NSF Paleoclimate Program #1748097.
PubMed: MeSH publication types
- Journal Article
- Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.