A two-stage technology foresight model with system dynamics simulation and its application in the Chinese ICT industry

Hongyi Chen, Wayne Wakeland, Jiang Yu

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

17 Scopus citations

Abstract

Technology foresight is a process that identifies the critical technologies a country or industry needs to develop in order to shape a desired future. In this paper, a two-stage technology foresight approach is proposed. During the first stage, critical technologies are identified and evaluated by nationwide experts through Delphi surveys. In the second stage, a system dynamics simulation model is used to estimate how critical parameter values are likely to impact the attainment of foresight goals. A detailed illustration of this two-stage process is provided by a technology foresight case study in the Chinese information and communication technologies (ICT) industry. Because it was identified by the first-stage Delphi method as a critical technology, the diffusion of 4th generation wireless telecommunication technology (4G) was simulated, and experimentation was conducted. Suggestions are provided regarding how the Chinese information industry would need to expand the IP network infrastructure in order to support technology foresight goals under different scenarios.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1254-1267
Number of pages14
JournalTechnological Forecasting and Social Change
Volume79
Issue number7
DOIs
StatePublished - Sep 1 2012
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Innovation diffusion
  • Simulation
  • System dynamics modeling
  • Technology foresight

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