A stronger role for long-term moisture change than for CO2 in determining tropical woody vegetation change

William D. Gosling; Charlotte S. Miller; Timothy M. Shanahan; Philip B. Holden; Jonathan T. Overpeck; Frank van Langevelde

doi:10.1126/science.abg4618

A stronger role for long-term moisture change than for CO₂ in determining tropical woody vegetation change

William D. Gosling, Charlotte S. Miller, Timothy M. Shanahan, Philip B. Holden, Jonathan T. Overpeck, Frank van Langevelde

Continental Scientific Drilling Facility

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

31 Scopus citations

Abstract

Anthropogenically elevated CO₂ (eCO₂) concentrations have been suggested to increase woody cover within tropical ecosystems through fertilization. The effect of eCO₂ is built into Earth system models, although testing the relationship over long periods remains challenging. Here, we explore the relative importance of six drivers of vegetation change in western Africa over the past ~500,000 years (moisture availability, fire activity, mammalian herbivore density, temperature, temperature seasonality, CO₂) by coupling past environmental change data from Lake Bosumtwi (Ghana) with global data. We found that moisture availability and fire activity were the most important factors in determining woody cover, whereas the effect of CO₂ was small. Our findings suggest that the role of eCO₂ effects on tropical vegetation in predictive models must be reconsidered.

Original language	English (US)
Article number	eabg4618
Journal	Science
Volume	376
Issue number	6593
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abg4618
State	Published - May 6 2022

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
The past environmental change data from Lake Bosumtwi used in this study were funded by a NERC/The Open University Charter studentship (NE/H525054/1 to C.S.M.) and a NERC New Investigator Award (NE/G000824/1 to W.D.G.). We thank the Lake Bosumtwi Drilling Project team, the International Continental Drilling Program, the US National Science Foundation, and National lacustrine core repository (LacCore) USA for supporting the acquisition and curation of Bosumtwi sediment cores and age model data.

Publisher Copyright:
Copyright © 2022 The Authors, some rights reserved.

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10.1126/science.abg4618

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title = "A stronger role for long-term moisture change than for CO2 in determining tropical woody vegetation change",

abstract = "Anthropogenically elevated CO2 (eCO2) concentrations have been suggested to increase woody cover within tropical ecosystems through fertilization. The effect of eCO2 is built into Earth system models, although testing the relationship over long periods remains challenging. Here, we explore the relative importance of six drivers of vegetation change in western Africa over the past ~500,000 years (moisture availability, fire activity, mammalian herbivore density, temperature, temperature seasonality, CO2) by coupling past environmental change data from Lake Bosumtwi (Ghana) with global data. We found that moisture availability and fire activity were the most important factors in determining woody cover, whereas the effect of CO2 was small. Our findings suggest that the role of eCO2 effects on tropical vegetation in predictive models must be reconsidered.",

author = "Gosling, {William D.} and Miller, {Charlotte S.} and Shanahan, {Timothy M.} and Holden, {Philip B.} and Overpeck, {Jonathan T.} and {van Langevelde}, Frank",

note = "Funding Information: The past environmental change data from Lake Bosumtwi used in this study were funded by a NERC/The Open University Charter studentship (NE/H525054/1 to C.S.M.) and a NERC New Investigator Award (NE/G000824/1 to W.D.G.). We thank the Lake Bosumtwi Drilling Project team, the International Continental Drilling Program, the US National Science Foundation, and National lacustrine core repository (LacCore) USA for supporting the acquisition and curation of Bosumtwi sediment cores and age model data. Publisher Copyright: Copyright {\textcopyright} 2022 The Authors, some rights reserved.",

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AU - Overpeck, Jonathan T.

AU - van Langevelde, Frank

N1 - Funding Information: The past environmental change data from Lake Bosumtwi used in this study were funded by a NERC/The Open University Charter studentship (NE/H525054/1 to C.S.M.) and a NERC New Investigator Award (NE/G000824/1 to W.D.G.). We thank the Lake Bosumtwi Drilling Project team, the International Continental Drilling Program, the US National Science Foundation, and National lacustrine core repository (LacCore) USA for supporting the acquisition and curation of Bosumtwi sediment cores and age model data. Publisher Copyright: Copyright © 2022 The Authors, some rights reserved.

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N2 - Anthropogenically elevated CO2 (eCO2) concentrations have been suggested to increase woody cover within tropical ecosystems through fertilization. The effect of eCO2 is built into Earth system models, although testing the relationship over long periods remains challenging. Here, we explore the relative importance of six drivers of vegetation change in western Africa over the past ~500,000 years (moisture availability, fire activity, mammalian herbivore density, temperature, temperature seasonality, CO2) by coupling past environmental change data from Lake Bosumtwi (Ghana) with global data. We found that moisture availability and fire activity were the most important factors in determining woody cover, whereas the effect of CO2 was small. Our findings suggest that the role of eCO2 effects on tropical vegetation in predictive models must be reconsidered.

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