The sensitivity of the United States Forest Health Monitoring network to outbreaks of defoliating insects was examined by means of a simulation study. A model constructed specifically for the study was used to generate a wide variety of defoliation patterns in forested landscapes. Forest configuration was that of Minnesota, USA, as expressed by the GAP land cover classification. Combinations of model parameters were based on a Latin Hypercube sample. The relationship between the average number of plots defoliated and outbreak characteristics was then examined via multiple regression. Both theoretical and model results pointed to a strong, linear relationship between the average number of plots defoliated and outbreak size. Model results provided additional insight, suggesting a significant relationship between the average number of plots defoliated and other outbreak characteristics after outbreak size was taken into account.
Bibliographical noteFunding Information:
Funds for this research were provided by a USDA Forest Service Forest Health Monitoring Evaluation Monitoring Grant, University of Minnesota Department of Forest Resources Agricultural Experiment Station Project 42-044, Dr. Thomas Eugene Avery Graduate Fellowship, and Dr. T. Schantz-Hansen Memorial Research Fellowship. The authors gratefully acknowledge the contributions of Jim Steinman and Manfred Mielke, both of the USDA Forest Service.
- Forest health monitoring
- Latin hypercube design
- Simulation modeling