A spatial stochastic model was used to simulate the spread of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in the Castile-and-Leon (CyL) region of Spain. The model was fitted using information available on premises demographics and on assumptions for animal movements, indirect contacts, and airborne exposure. Control measures dictated by Spanish and European Union regulations constituted a reference strategy to which six alternative control strategies were compared. For the reference strategy, the median (95% PI) numbers of infected, depopulated, and quarantined premises were 141 (2-1099), 164 (4-1302), and 334 (31-2059), respectively. Depopulation and vaccination of premises within a radius of <1. km and <3. km, respectively, around infected premises significantly (p-value <0.001) decreased the number of infected premises, compared to the reference scenario. Results presented here will contribute to the revision, design, and implementation of contingency plans and programs for prevention and control of FMD epidemics in Spain.
Bibliographical noteFunding Information:
This research was supported by a cooperative agreement between the Regional Government of Castile and Leon and the Complutense University of Madrid and by the UC Davis USDA-NCMI 2007-39487-18628 project. This work would not have been possible without the provision of data from the Castile and Leon Animal Health Division. Contributions from Drs. Mark Thurmond (UC Davis, U.S.A.), Mark Stevenson (Massey University, New Zealand) and Robert Sanson (AgriQuality, New Zealand) and two anonymous reviewers are gratefully acknowledged.
Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
- Foot-and-mouth disease
- Spatial analysis