To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land-use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e., nature's contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)-SSP1xRCP2.6, SSP3xRCP6.0, SSP5xRCP8.6-to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenario selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem services models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modeling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modeling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios.
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Acknowledgements. HyeJin Kim, Inês Santos Martins, Florian Wolf, Carlos Guerra, and Henrique M. Pereira are supported by the German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, funded by the German Research Foundation (FZT 118). Isabel Maria Duarte Rosa acknowledges funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement no. 703862. Paul Leadley is supported by the LabEx BASC supported by the French “Investment d’Avenir” program (grant ANR-11-LABX-0034). George C. Hurtt and Louise Parsons Chini gratefully acknowledge the support of the DOE-SciDAC program (DE SC0012972). Almut Arneth, Andreas Krause, Benjamin Quesada, and Peter Anthoni acknowledge support from the Helmholtz Association and its ATMO Programme, and EU FP7 project LUC4C. Andy Purvis, Adriana De Palm, and Samantha L. L. Hill are supported by the Natural Environment Research Council U.K. (grant number NE/M014533/1) and by a DIF grant from the Natural History Museum. Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer and Richard Sharp are supported by private gifts to the Natural Capital Project. David Leclère, Fulvio Di Fulvio, Petr Havlík, and Michael Obersteiner are supported by the project IS-WEL-Integrated Solutions for Water, Energy and Land funding from the Global Environmental Facility, Washington, USA, coordinated by the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), UNIDO project no. 140312. Fulvio Di Fulvio and Michael Obersteiner are supported by the ERC SYNERGY grant project IMBALANCE-P-Managing Phosphorous limitation in a nitrogen-saturated Anthropocene, funding from the European Commission, European Research Council Executive Agency, grant agreement no. 610028. David Leclère and Petr Havlík are supported by project SIGMA – Stimulating Innovation for Global Monitoring of Agriculture – and its Impact on the Environment in support of GEOGLAM, funding from the European Union’s FP7 research and innovation program under the environment area, grant agreement no. 603719. Tomoko Hasegawa, Haruka Ohashi, Akiko Hirata, Shinichiro Fujimori, Tetsuya Matsui, and Kiyoshi Takahashi are supported by the Global Environmental Research (S-14) of the Ministry of the Environment of Japan. Tomoko Hasegawa, Shinichiro Fujimori, and Kiyoshi Takahashi are supported by Environment Research and Technology Development Fund 2-1702 of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan. Mike Harfoot is supported by a KR Rasmussen Foundation grant “Modelling the Biodiversity Planetary Boundary and Embedding Results into Policy” (FP- 1503-01714). Vanessa Haverd acknowledges support from the Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub, funded by the Australian Government’s National Environmental Science program. Cory Merow acknowledges funding from NSF grant DEB1565046. Finally, we also thank the following organizations for funding the workshops: the PBL Netherland Environment Assessment Agency, UNESCO (March 2016), the iDiv German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (October 2016, October 2017), and the Zoological Society of London (January 2018).
© 2018 Author(s).