A novel risk prediction score in atrial fibrillation for a net clinical outcome from the ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 randomized clinical trial

Christina L. Fanola, Robert P. Giugliano, Christian T. Ruff, Marco Trevisan, Francesco Nordio, Michele F. Mercuri, Elliott M. Antman, Eugene Braunwald

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

20 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Aims The choice between initiating a non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant (NOAC) and a vitamin K antagonist (VKA) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) may be challenging. To assist in this decision, we developed a risk score to identify patients for whom a therapeutic benefit of NOACs over VKA is predicted. Methods and results ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 was a randomized clinical trial of edoxaban vs. warfarin in 21 105 patients with AF. Cox proportional hazard models identified factors associated with a serious net clinical outcome (NCO) of disabling stroke, life-threatening bleeding, and all-cause mortality in VKA naïve patients from the warfarin arm. These were used to develop an integer risk score. Performance was assessed by C-indices and validation by bootstrapping. Kaplan-Meier analyses were stratified by three score categories and treatment arm. Over a median of 2.7 years, 457 NCO events occurred in 2898 patients with a total person-time of 7549.5 years (6.05%/year). The risk prediction model (C = 0.693) for the NCO was translated into a 17-point integer score, with annualized event rates for the low, intermediate, and high-risk categories in the warfarin arm of 3.5%, 9.9%, and 20.8%, respectively. Therapeutic benefit of higher- and lower-dose edoxaban over warfarin was demonstrated in the high- and intermediate-risk, with equal benefit in the low-risk categories (P-interaction 0.008 and 0.014, respectively). Conclusion In VKA naive patients with AF, the TIMI-AF score can assist in the prediction of a poor composite outcome and guide selection of anticoagulant therapy by identifying a differential clinical benefit with a NOAC or VKA.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)888-896
Number of pages9
JournalEuropean Heart Journal
Volume38
Issue number12
DOIs
StatePublished - Mar 21 2017

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Vitamin K
Atrial Fibrillation
Randomized Controlled Trials
Warfarin
Anticoagulants
Kaplan-Meier Estimate
Therapeutics
Proportional Hazards Models
Stroke
Hemorrhage
Mortality

Keywords

  • Anticoagulants
  • Atrial fibrillation
  • Edoxaban
  • Stroke
  • Warfarin

Cite this

A novel risk prediction score in atrial fibrillation for a net clinical outcome from the ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 randomized clinical trial. / Fanola, Christina L.; Giugliano, Robert P.; Ruff, Christian T.; Trevisan, Marco; Nordio, Francesco; Mercuri, Michele F.; Antman, Elliott M.; Braunwald, Eugene.

In: European Heart Journal, Vol. 38, No. 12, 21.03.2017, p. 888-896.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Fanola, Christina L. ; Giugliano, Robert P. ; Ruff, Christian T. ; Trevisan, Marco ; Nordio, Francesco ; Mercuri, Michele F. ; Antman, Elliott M. ; Braunwald, Eugene. / A novel risk prediction score in atrial fibrillation for a net clinical outcome from the ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 randomized clinical trial. In: European Heart Journal. 2017 ; Vol. 38, No. 12. pp. 888-896.
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abstract = "Aims The choice between initiating a non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant (NOAC) and a vitamin K antagonist (VKA) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) may be challenging. To assist in this decision, we developed a risk score to identify patients for whom a therapeutic benefit of NOACs over VKA is predicted. Methods and results ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 was a randomized clinical trial of edoxaban vs. warfarin in 21 105 patients with AF. Cox proportional hazard models identified factors associated with a serious net clinical outcome (NCO) of disabling stroke, life-threatening bleeding, and all-cause mortality in VKA na{\"i}ve patients from the warfarin arm. These were used to develop an integer risk score. Performance was assessed by C-indices and validation by bootstrapping. Kaplan-Meier analyses were stratified by three score categories and treatment arm. Over a median of 2.7 years, 457 NCO events occurred in 2898 patients with a total person-time of 7549.5 years (6.05{\%}/year). The risk prediction model (C = 0.693) for the NCO was translated into a 17-point integer score, with annualized event rates for the low, intermediate, and high-risk categories in the warfarin arm of 3.5{\%}, 9.9{\%}, and 20.8{\%}, respectively. Therapeutic benefit of higher- and lower-dose edoxaban over warfarin was demonstrated in the high- and intermediate-risk, with equal benefit in the low-risk categories (P-interaction 0.008 and 0.014, respectively). Conclusion In VKA naive patients with AF, the TIMI-AF score can assist in the prediction of a poor composite outcome and guide selection of anticoagulant therapy by identifying a differential clinical benefit with a NOAC or VKA.",
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AU - Fanola, Christina L.

AU - Giugliano, Robert P.

AU - Ruff, Christian T.

AU - Trevisan, Marco

AU - Nordio, Francesco

AU - Mercuri, Michele F.

AU - Antman, Elliott M.

AU - Braunwald, Eugene

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N2 - Aims The choice between initiating a non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant (NOAC) and a vitamin K antagonist (VKA) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) may be challenging. To assist in this decision, we developed a risk score to identify patients for whom a therapeutic benefit of NOACs over VKA is predicted. Methods and results ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 was a randomized clinical trial of edoxaban vs. warfarin in 21 105 patients with AF. Cox proportional hazard models identified factors associated with a serious net clinical outcome (NCO) of disabling stroke, life-threatening bleeding, and all-cause mortality in VKA naïve patients from the warfarin arm. These were used to develop an integer risk score. Performance was assessed by C-indices and validation by bootstrapping. Kaplan-Meier analyses were stratified by three score categories and treatment arm. Over a median of 2.7 years, 457 NCO events occurred in 2898 patients with a total person-time of 7549.5 years (6.05%/year). The risk prediction model (C = 0.693) for the NCO was translated into a 17-point integer score, with annualized event rates for the low, intermediate, and high-risk categories in the warfarin arm of 3.5%, 9.9%, and 20.8%, respectively. Therapeutic benefit of higher- and lower-dose edoxaban over warfarin was demonstrated in the high- and intermediate-risk, with equal benefit in the low-risk categories (P-interaction 0.008 and 0.014, respectively). Conclusion In VKA naive patients with AF, the TIMI-AF score can assist in the prediction of a poor composite outcome and guide selection of anticoagulant therapy by identifying a differential clinical benefit with a NOAC or VKA.

AB - Aims The choice between initiating a non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant (NOAC) and a vitamin K antagonist (VKA) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) may be challenging. To assist in this decision, we developed a risk score to identify patients for whom a therapeutic benefit of NOACs over VKA is predicted. Methods and results ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 was a randomized clinical trial of edoxaban vs. warfarin in 21 105 patients with AF. Cox proportional hazard models identified factors associated with a serious net clinical outcome (NCO) of disabling stroke, life-threatening bleeding, and all-cause mortality in VKA naïve patients from the warfarin arm. These were used to develop an integer risk score. Performance was assessed by C-indices and validation by bootstrapping. Kaplan-Meier analyses were stratified by three score categories and treatment arm. Over a median of 2.7 years, 457 NCO events occurred in 2898 patients with a total person-time of 7549.5 years (6.05%/year). The risk prediction model (C = 0.693) for the NCO was translated into a 17-point integer score, with annualized event rates for the low, intermediate, and high-risk categories in the warfarin arm of 3.5%, 9.9%, and 20.8%, respectively. Therapeutic benefit of higher- and lower-dose edoxaban over warfarin was demonstrated in the high- and intermediate-risk, with equal benefit in the low-risk categories (P-interaction 0.008 and 0.014, respectively). Conclusion In VKA naive patients with AF, the TIMI-AF score can assist in the prediction of a poor composite outcome and guide selection of anticoagulant therapy by identifying a differential clinical benefit with a NOAC or VKA.

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