A Data-integrated Framework for Identifying Breeding Opportunities in the US Ornamental Plant Industry

Ornamental breeding priorities are commonly informed by breeder expertise, grower input, historical sales patterns, and production feasibility. However, these inputs may not fully capture emerging consumer interest or intellectual property constraints. We developed a quantitative framework for evaluating relative breeding opportunities in ornamental crops by integrating Google Trends consumer search interest metrics with US plant patent indicators of competitive intensity. Monthly US Google Trends data from Jan 2004 through Nov 2025 were used to estimate search interest intensity, growth, and volatility across five ornamental sectors: bedding plants, flowering potted plants, foliage plants, landscape ornamentals, and cut flowers and greens. US plant patent records filed from 2001 through 2025 were used to quantify patent saturation, filing velocity, and ownership concentration. These variables were combined into a breeding opportunity index (BOI) based on sector-normalized consumer interest and intellectual property openness, whereas US Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service data were used to contextualize production geography. Search interest growth was distributed unevenly among sectors and genera. Foliage plants showed the strongest post 2019 acceleration, with Monstera and Philodendron contributing substantially to recent growth. Patent analysis revealed large differences in competitive intensity, including genera with high consumer search interest but comparatively lower patent saturation. Trait-level comparisons identified mismatches between consumer search interest and patent representation, particularly for low-maintenance and abiotic stress–related traits. BOI rankings identified genera combining strong search interest growth with comparatively greater intellectual property openness. This framework provides a reproducible screening approach for identifying ornamental genera and traits that war rant further biological, regional, and commercial evaluation.