A Confirmatory Test of a Model of Performance Determinants

The total variance in any observed measure of performance can be attributed to 3 sources: (a) the correlation of the measure with the latent variable of interest (i.e., true score variance), (b) reliable but irrelevant variance due to contamination, and (c) error. A model is proposed that specifies 3, and only 3, determinants of the relevant variance: declarative knowledge, procedural knowledge and skill, and volitional choice (motivation). The 3 determinants are defined, and their implications for performance measurement are discussed. Using data from the U.S. Army Selection and Classification Project (Project A), the authors found that the model fits a simplex pattern to the criterion data matrix. The predictor-determinant correlations are also estimated. Analyses of the data with LISREL provided strong confirmation of the model.