Dynamically downscaled CMIP5 climate projection data for Minnesota



This dataset contains climate projections over Minnesota at 10 km horizontal resolution. Eight CMIP5 global climate models have been dynamically downscaled with the regional WRF model for the periods 1980-1999, 2040-2059, and 2080-2099, with the latter being represented as a moderate (RCP4.5) and also as an extreme "business as usual" scenario (RCP8.5). The projections suggest ongoing warming in all seasons, especially in winter, as well as reduced snow depth and fewer days with snow cover. Significant increases in spring and early summer heavy precipitation events are expected. The other variables in this dataset are daily max. and min. temperatures, relative humidity, latent heat flux (as proxy for evaporation), sensible heat flux, ground heat flux, incoming solar radiation, total radiation, snow depth, and wind speed. Temperatures, precipitation, and snow depth are also available as bias adjusted. Results indicate a climate near the end of the 21st century that is significantly different from what has been observed by the end of the 20th century. Winters and summers are expected to be up to 6C and 4C warmer, respectively, and spring precipitation may increase by more than 1 mm per day over northern Minnesota. Winter snow depth is projected to decrease by more than 12 cm and the number of days per year with snow depth of more than 2.54 cm (one inch) is expected to decrease by up to 55. These results are expected to influence regional decision-making related to agriculture, infrastructure, water resources, and other sectors.

The four zip folders contain eight files each in netCDF format (one per input CMIP5 model) of daily model output dynamically downscaled with the WRF regional model (Skamarock et al. 2008) over the 20-year periods historical_1980-1999, RCP4.5_2040-2059, RCP4.5_2080-2099, and RCP8.5_2080-2099. File names are structured as follows: <scenario>_<model>_<years>_WRF.nc (example: historical_bcc-csm1-1_1980-1999_WRF.nc) More information on the scenarios can be found in van Vuuren et al. (2011), and the downscaling results are summarized in Liess et al. (2022). Liess, S., and Coauthors, 2022: High-resolution Climate Projections over Minnesota for the 21st Century. Earth and Space Science, https://www.essoar.org/doi/10.1002/essoar.10507340.2 Skamarock, W. C., and Coauthors, 2008: A description of the Advanced Research WRF version 3. National Center for Atmospheric Research, 125 pp. van Vuuren, D. P., and Coauthors, 2011: The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Clim. Change, 109, 5–31, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z.

Funding information
Sponsorship: Legislative-Citizen Commission on Minnesota Resources Grant Number:M.L. 2014,Chp. 312,Sec. 8; Minnesota Environment and Natural Resources Trust Fund Grant Number:M.L. 2015,Chp. 76,Sec. 2,Subd. 04a

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Date made availableJan 25 2022
PublisherData Repository for the University of Minnesota

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